Will the Huck Surge Help Fred?

Ray Robison has written a blog post postulating that Huck's boom may end up helping Fred in the end. Ray argues that there is an "inevitability" of Clinton and an electibility of Rudy at work in this mix, but Clinton is being shown to be beatable.

Along with that, conservative voters are feeling free to jump off the Giuliani train. The real question then is - are they flocking to Huckabee because they truly want him to be president? Or is Huckabee simply the rebound guy for voters leaving a dysfunctional marriage to a candidate they never really loved?

He might be. If so, now that these voters have been stripped from Giuliani they probably aren’t going back and Thompson will likely get them in the long term as the gloss of a new love wears thin and they see that Huckabee also falls short with his conservative credentials.

Huckabee has been the short term beneficiary of this shift because he has performed well in recent months. His charm offensive is impressive, he performs well under pressure, but serious questions are being raised about his policies while governor. In an election which still hinges mostly on national security for the Republicans, Huckabee has little to call upon. What’s worse, he may be charming but he doesn’t come across as tough enough to be able to go toe-to-toe with future brutal despots and terrorist groups. You might want Huckabee for a boss, but probably not as the cop to come save your hide.

Perhaps more importantly, Governor Huckabee is vulnerable on illegal immigration. Illegal immigration is perhaps the only issue right now that the base of both parties cares about intensely. Despite opposition to reform by liberals, the base of the Democratic Party has been grumbling almost as much as Republicans over the tidal wave of illegal immigrants. Perhaps nothing will pull as many crossover voters and Independents as a strong law and order stance against illegal immigration. In the general election a strong anti-illegal immigration position will be a winner.

Thompson is the only Republican conservative front runner who comes across as tough against our enemies and illegal immigration. In the end, conservative voters may come to realize that they have been drawn to a charming guy in Huckabee but he isn’t Mister Right. At that point, Thompson will be there to collect those conservative votes.

I don't know if all of this analysis is true, BUT here is what we are seeing. In Iowa, Mitt is losing support to Huck. Nationally, Rudy is losing support to Huck. Rudy and Mitt have been the front runners (from a media viewpoint anyway) and Republicans are moving away from those two for whatever reason. Huck is the beneficiary right now because: he is different and new to their attention, he has the social conservative mantle, and he speaks well. But as people get a better look at him, what will they see? I have detailed many of Huck's faults in this blog and this is beginning to come out in the press. Hopefully what we will see is a subsequent move from Huck to Fred. If so, things will look very good as Huck comes back to earth.