The bad part about Rasmussen is that he does not have graphical representations, so here is a quick graph for us to look at. The data starts on October 1 and goes through today's numbers (click for a larger, readable version).
What can we determine here:
1. The numbers are very dynamic. While Rudy has been in first place for the majority of the window, the other positions have swapped a LOT.
2. Only three candidates have ever had more than 17% support: Fred, Huck, Rudy.
3. Fred was highest as he entered the race; he has dropped precipitously, but seems to have flattened out and, I believe, is starting to rise (the next few days will reveal if that is correct).
4. Rudy has normally been above 20% support, but has suddenly dropped a lot (24 to 13 in 10 days).
5. Huck has had a meteoric rise, but now seems to have flattened out (and I hope is about to tank just like Rudy).
6. Both Mitt and McCain have had mini-surges, but have not broken through their long-term high support levels.
My conclusion: There is plenty of volatility for Fred to be able to come back up in the next two weeks. My guess is that McCain and Mitt has support ceilings that they will not break out of. Rudy will table out somewhere, but I am guessing that his support has left for good. If Fred (or the others) can get the message out that Huck is not a conservative Republican, Huck's support will relatively quickly go back to Fred and Fred's support will come back. The next two weeks in Iowa will tell the story.
No comments:
Post a Comment