Managing Expectations

I was reading Byron York's NRO piece on the Iowa debate and noticed that he was quoting Fred's campaign staff setting the expectations for Iowa as a "strong third" place finish.

After the debate, his team was putting out the word that a third-place finish might be just fine, provided Huckabee and Romney hurt each other in the process. “We have to provide a clear choice for this third position,” another Thompson adviser, Mary Matalin, told me. “A solid third, not just an accidental third.”

“Remember, we don’t have to win,” Galen told me. “We don’t even have to come in second.”

What we have here are managing expectations. I do not think that Fred's folk are looking for a "solid third" finish. I actually don't think that they are aiming for second. I think that they honestly feel that they can win this thing, but you will not see anyone say it.

Remember at the end of the third quarter Fred's campaign was floating that their third quarter numbers would be about $5 million and then it turned out to be over $8 million? They had been burned on the second quarter numbers where the expectations went the other way (they predicted $5 million and got $3 million). They don't want that to happen again.

So if Fred comes in a strong third, they can say "that is where we expected to be--now on to South Carolina" where they would need to win. If he manages second it becomes a big story--"we came from fourth to second--we made up over 20 points." If he wins, it will be headlines for days (and he easily gets the Republican nomination).