Fred--the anti-Huck

I came across an interesting blog entry on Free Republic talking about "The Birth of the Stop Huckabee Movement". "Brices Crossroads" writes that many in the GOP are deciding that Huck would be a disaster for the party and so the question is, "who can stop Huckabee?"

His answer is Fred. Why?

Let me give you two reasons that Fred Thompson appears to be the one, one having to do with the horserace and the second having to do with acceptability. First, the horserace: Romney is cratering in Iowa. Rudy is not a factor from an organizational or ideological standpoint. Neither is McCain. Once downward momentum has begun to afflict a frontrunner the way it has Romney, it is next to impossible to reverse. That leaves only one candidate who can be the alternative both from an ideological and an organizational standpoint: Thompson. If Thompson comes in second or overtakes Huckabee, he becomes the anti-Huckabee candidate and the de facto winner of the caucuses because he had been predicted to finish as low as fifth. (I cannot believe the MSM is still obligingly tamping down expectations for him. May they continue to do so.) Bear in mind that a huge number of Iowans have not decided and, in a caucus format, are capable of being persuaded at the caucus events themselves. Both of these dynamics favor Thompson, who is setting up shop in Iowa until January 3.

The second reason why Thompson is so well positioned here is acceptability. The knocks on Fred are nearly all style, fire in the belly and other intangible pap. They have nothing to do with the issues on which most GOP voters agree overwhelmingly with Thompson. As Rush Limbaugh has often said, elections are about issues. On the issues, all of them, Thompson agrees with the vast majority of GOP primary voters and is acceptable(i.e.- does not scare) any of them. The same cannot be said of Rudy and Huckabee.

This is, of course, talking about Iowa primarily, but I am increasingly viewing Iowa as a critical event--not necessarily saying who will win everything, but it will greatly determine what will happen throughout the rest of the primary season.

Scenarios (warning, a lot of wild speculation here):

1. The latest polls are how things end: Huck in 30s, Mitt in low 20s or upper teens, Fred at 10. That would probably finish Fred and it may come close to ending Mitt. The contest becomes Huck vs. Rudy. Rudy wins because Huck would be a terrible candidate.

2. The order stays the same, but everything ends very close. Huck 33, Mitt 31, Fred 28. Probably no one is knocked out. One of the three can come out of South Carolina which would be a dog fight.

3. The Huck bubble bursts, but Mitt wins and Fred is second. Huck would be done everywhere. Fred probably gets a lot of Huck's support. Once again South Carolina would determine who lives between Fred and Mitt.

4. Iowans wake up and smell the coffee that Huck is a disaster, he falls off the face of the earth, Fred gets the support and unexpectedly wins Iowa. Huck would be done. Mitt would likely be done as well setting up a Fred Rudy showdown. Fred would win due to getting the consensus anti-Rudy vote in the party which will be significant.

In any case, only one of Mitt, Huck or Fred is viable after South Carolina. But Iowa can eliminate one or both from being viable IN South Carolina.