What Happens When the Fallout Occurs

These musing are inspired by some pictures of McCain and Fred before the YouTube debate.

A bit of hopeful thinking here. But as the primary season moves on, there will be some unexpected dynamics. For instance, there are a couple of candidates who MUST do well in the first couple of primaries/caucuses in order to have a chance. Let's throw out some ideas:

McCain. He does not have to do well in Iowa, which he is writing off. But in order to be viable he probably has to win in New Hampshire. Let's say his current position holds which is 3rd. Due to his financial issues and the inevitability, I think he will actually pull out of the election. Based on his relationship with Fred, I predict that he will pull out and endorse Fred. Based on the way that they have run their respective campaigns, I believe that much of McCain's support would probably move over to Fred.

Romney. What if he does lose Iowa? What if he goes into third place there? What if Rudy comes up and beats Mitt in New Hampshire? I don't think that Mitt will drop out, but if he does poorly in one or both of these states, some supporters will jump ship. I think Fred gains some by this scenario, but not quickly and not as much as if someone completely drops out.

Huckabee. What if the electorate finally figures out that while Huck is a social conservative, he is completely unacceptable in every other way. This realization destroys his support in Iowa. Much of Huck's support loss should gravitate to Fred due to the socially conservative aspects.

Certainly not all of these will occur. And Fred needs to get some positive momentum in the next month for it to make any difference. But I am hopeful that Fred will generate momentum. And I believe at least one, if not two of these scenarios will happen. I have presented the scenarios in the order that I believe to be most likely (McCain, Mitt, Huck) even though the reverse order is the order that it SHOULD happen.