Can Huck help Fred?

Jason at postpolitical.com has put forth the theory that Huck can actually help Fred by winning in Iowa and taking out Mitt. Here is his scenario:

My friends, if Huckabee wins Iowa, Mitt Romney’s campaign is over. His numbers will slightly fade in New Hampshire, though not much since the time difference will only be a week between the two elections, but Romney’s South Carolina support will fade after a perception of unelectability, and he will quickly become the candidate that has too much to overcome (Mormon, Massachusetts, flip flopper).

Enter Fred Thompson. Under this scenario, Huckabee’s Iowa upset will be short lived as he will undoubtedly fade after finishing 3rd in New Hampshire’s election. Fred will win South Carolina handily, and from the boost of winning the first in the south and finishing a strong 3rd in Iowa (I’m predicting above 20%), along with Mitt considered out of the race, he will compete to win over conservatives from Rudy in Florida and beyond on Super Tuesday. He’ll continue his southern strategy and maybe, just maybe, could compete against Rudy’s big delegate counts from sweeping the Northeast and California.

Allowing this strategy to unfold would mean a needed double attack on Mitt Romney via Thompson and Huckabee. Whether this could play out is unknown, as Huckabee has concentrated his strategy against Thompson in hopes of becoming the VP to either Romney or Rudy. None-the-less, Romney’s exit from the race is what’s needed for Fred to win, so he has no choice but to stop the Huckabee-bashing, and start on Romney. It’s the only way he’ll chip away at Mitt’s support, force an unelectable Huckabee to win the first election day, finish a strong 3rd in Iowa, and propel himself as the only electable conservative standing post-New Hampshire as an alternative to Rudy (which we want).

Now I think he has several things right, but not necessarily all of them. While a second place finish in Iowa would be extremely damaging to Mitt, I don't know that it is a knockout punch. Now if Huck finished first and Fred in second in Iowa, that would represent a quick end to Mitt--and I do think that is a possibility. (Of course, I still see a Fred win a as a possibility.) Based on his spending and constant critiques of Rudy, I think Mitt has determined that a strong finish in New Hampshire is the absolute critical vote for him. But a loss in Iowa could easily undermine any strength Mitt has in New Hampshire. A close win for Mitt in New Hampshire is a loss for him! If Mitt wins by only 4 points after having lost Iowa will probably destroy all of his remaining strength going forward.

But I disagree with Jason that Huck will be done with a third place finish in New Hampshire. His influence may go on for a while unless the electorate understands his liberal positions on financial issues, which he has done a good job of hiding to this point.