Tuesday, November 6, 2007

"Expert Opinion"

National Review has published a "Symposium" asking their "experts" to make predictions about next year's election. Some experts either partially or entirely posted humor:

Jim Geraghty:
In related news, the small Texas territory calling itself “the Sovereign State of Ronpaulia” said that it would discuss a seccession petition in the beginning of next year...
Michael Graham postulates a Clinton/Clinton vs Giuliani/Schwarzenegger vs Buchanan/Paul vs Kucinich/Sheehan with Giuliani winning with 33% of the vote.

Bridget Johnson suggests Huckabee, though I can't tell if that is humorous or serious. The last line is clearly humorous: "Ron Paul becomes a greeter at Wal-Mart."

Overall, they had 10 "experts" make predictions. I throw out Graham since he is clearly being humorous. Of the 9 remaining experts: 3 pick Romney as the Republican nominee; 4 pick Rudy; 1 picks Huckabee; 1 picks no Republican. All 9 pick Hillary as the Democrat. 4 pick the Republicans to win the general election; 4 pick Hillary; 1 does not pick.

I am struck that no one at National Review thinks that Fred will get the nomination. Particularly since the 3 picking Romney are picking the one in 5th place in the most recent Rasmussen daily tracking poll (Rudy 23, Fred 18, McCain 15, Huckabee 12, Mitt 11). There is a big assumption of a huge bump when/if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire--which, as I have said before, I don't think will happen.

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