New ABC Iowa Poll - And Details

ABC has released a new poll (pdf) that has Fred in third place in Iowa behind Mitt and Huck (28, Mitt; 24, Huck; 15, Fred). That, of course, is what is making news--and for Fred, it is a good sign that he is now falling off into obscurity. Actually he has come up 2 points since the last ABC poll.

But the real story in this poll is what is behind those numbers. Here are a couple of encouraging items:

First, Mitt's support with First Caucus goers is 37%. These folk are usually difficult to actually get to the first caucus, so that support may not be as strong as believed.

Second, of Mitt's supporters, 42% say they have a good chance of switching candidates. Even 26% of Huck's say they have a good chance of switching.

These numbers tell me that there is a lot that can happen in the next 5 weeks. There are people who can be convinced. There are people who need to be convinced to go to their caucus.