What is at stake here?

Happy New Year.

I am sorry my posts have been so infrequent throughout this holiday season. While I have not out of town, it has been my pleasure to spend much of the last two weeks with my extended family.

The Iowa Caucus is two days away. While the Republican nomination will surely not be decided in this single event, it will have repercussions that will echo throughout the remainder of the election. For Fred, the caucus could destroy the entire election; keep him going through South Carolina; or propel him to the Republican nomination.

But as we go forward throughout the primary season and then into the general election we will find that there is more at stake than the 2008 Presidential election. The heart of the party and the Republican coalition is in the balance. The different major candidates represent vastly different parts of that coalition:

Huckabee represents social conservatives (though he is fiscally a populist).

Giuliani and McCain represent the defense conservatives.

Romney represents fiscal conservatives (though he tries to appeal to the other conservatives).

Paul represents the libertarians.

Fred genuinely ties all three together.

These are all various factions of the Republican coalition that has held together since 1980. Any except Fred has the potential of tearing the coalition apart. Some more than others. Huckabee, Giuliani and Paul have the greatest potential of destroying the coalition for the present time.

That is one implication of this upcoming nomination process.

But already we have had a harbinger of difficulties in the Republican coalition. At one time, Fox News was universally believed to at least give the conservative movement a fair shake. Their treatment of Fred has shaken that belief.

Others within the conservative movement have publicly violated Reagan's "11th Commandment" of not attacking each other. Notably Hugh Hewitt has been caustic against any who refuse to support Romney--I believe forever shaking his influence in the movement has been permanently damaged through this action.

I do not know what the Iowa Caucus will bring on Thursday. I pray that those who will destroy the coalition are defeated. I believe that, more than any other candidate, Fred will hold the coalition together and would be the best and most effective President in the Republican field. So I pray that he does well. Others may hold the coalition together and serve, if not as well as Fred, nearly as well. If Fred cannot come out on top, I pray that they will do well.

FredHeads and conservatives: keep the faith.