Iowa Thoughts

Well now we have that out of the way. Here are the results as I have as of 11:20pm:

Huck 34%
Mitt 25%
Fred 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 1%

More or less, the Real Clear Politics average was roughly correct.

Well, was that a strong finish for Fred? Not really. Was it a poor finish? Not really. It was hoped that Iowa would clear things up, but it has not.

There is, however, a clear loser here tonight--Mitt. Mitt spent more money and time than anyone in Iowa and lost by 9 points. Huck and McCain had good showings.

What does it mean? Well, I think that Mitt is hurt in New Hampshire. I think it is very likely that he loses New Hampshire to McCain (McCain is already up by over 2 points in the RCP average). Will his support begin to shed? I would like to think so. I don't think he will drop out as he doesn't need the money, but that doesn't mean that his support will stay with him.

Fred still needs a strong showing somewhere to be a good destination for votes from other candidates. South Carolina is probably that place. If I am Fred, I drive the bus to SC and spend the next couple of weeks there.