It is 8:30. The South Carolina polls are closed and the returns are creeping in. So far, most of the returns are coming from the coast and the low country, which are not supposed to be good areas for Fred, but he is holding in third place.
It increasingly looks like Fred is not going to get the second or first place finish hoped for. But it isn't looking like a devastating fourth place finish either.
Fred has told us to "Stay Strong". The difficulty is going to be keeping the finances coming in to keep the campaign working. In my opinion, this probably makes it difficult for Fred to get the nomination by getting a majority of the delegates at the convention. But that does not mean that I think he should drop out.
Mitt won Nevada today. It is very likely that McCain will win South Carolina narrowly today. Rudy hasn't even started yet (Super Tuesday is his hope). As each contest goes on, the likelihood of a brokered convention increases. Fred will need as many delegates as possible at that convention to make sure that he has the power to have a strong say in the direction of the party.
I still think that if we get to a brokered convention that Fred has a great chance of coming out of it with the nomination.
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2 comments:
My prayer is for a brokered convention.
I see Fred as being above the political weaselliness that prevailing in a brokered convention would require. I'm not even sure he'd be willing to allow the weasels that gravitate toward a campaign, his included, to run amok in Minneapolis in September, striking the deals that Conventional Wisdom would dictate would be required.
At some point, though, it'd seem that there would be an epiphany that would reveal that all the slick talk and snake oil salemanship ain't what is needed; that calm, possibly slightly painful straight talk is a much superior approach. There are times when government can address a problem and is the best way of addressing the problem, but such times are rare indeed. Promising magic programs to fix anything and everything merely guarantees the perpetuation of whatever is perceived to be in need of fixing, while adding the overhead of a governmental beast to maintain. Fred's minimalist Federalist approach appeals to me in a big, big way.
But after the shotgun blast of Super Tuesday, I can hear the media wailing that "no true front-runner has emerged among the Republican candidates, despite our best efforts to anoint Giuliani, then Huckabee, then McCain . . . what ever will become of them? Does this mean we can declare Mrs. Clinton the winner now?" Alas, poor media, we do have a well-defined constitutional process that must be followed. Come to think of it, the Constitition is a relatively brief document, and elections are among the few things (e.g., printing money, establishing a post office, defending the nation from its enemies) that it directs government to do.
Fred "speaks to me" unlike any other candidate, ever. I think his electability should be a given, particularly when I think about his prospective opponent in November. Why the voters behave in the media-driven herd mentality – "I wanna pick a winner, an' the guy on the TV said that so-and-so looked to be the one to pick" – is beyond me. People, this isn't a horse race, nor is about taking sides with a dashing "rock star" personality (which is another major puzzlement for me, but never mind that just now). We should listen to what the candidate have to say, look at where they've stood in the past, and from this we make a judgment on their suitability. "Leadership" (whatever that is) plays a part, too, and Fred does know how to carry himself in that regard.
Unless the herd mentality kicks in with vigor for McCain, which isn't something I see happening, nobody will have the delegates in Minneapolis. Stepping back from the fray, Fred seems to me to be the only choice. But then again, I've been thinking that for eight or nine months now.
Sam, you make very good points.
I am becoming convinced that conservatives have a lot of work to help people come to the epiphany that you talk about.
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