The Road to the Nomination

Jim Geraghty at National Review's Campaign Spot has posted on the path that each of the big five (yes, Huckabee is included in his top teer list) would take to the Republican nomination. I think he has a pretty good analysis of the situation. In his section on Fred, he says:

I’ve said earlier that I have an easy time picturing the race coming down to Rudy and Not Rudy, and the Not Rudy candidate winning in the end as Republicans conclude they’re just not comfortable with a candidate with Giuliani’s flaws on abortion, guns, and gays. It’s in Thompson’s interest that he be seen as the most viable Not Rudy candidate as quickly as possible.

There are two ways that I believe that this can occur. First, is a very close Iowa. Even if Romney wins, having Fred come in a close second or even Huckabee coming in a close second weakens him. I think it is actually very possible for either Fred or Huckabee to win in Iowa. The second way is for Rudy (or anyone else) winning over Romney in New Hampshire. If these two things happen, then Mitt will no longer be the "Not Rudy" candidate. It is possible for Huckabee to slide into that role, but I do not really think that Huckabee has staying power in his current surge.