Thursday, October 25, 2007

Giuliani in Freefall?

When Fred's numbers started dropping there was a lot of press talking about his post-announcement bubble bursting and that he was sliding out of the race. You still hear a bit about that.

What has not been commented on is a steady down-trend in Rudy's numbers bringing Fred to 2% down in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Rudy peaked on 10/14 at 30% support and his been continually dropping and today (10/25) is down to 21%.

Fred's peaked at 28% several times, but the most recent was on 9/18, about two weeks after his announcement. On 10/10 he dropped to 17% and then stabilized and has since floated back upward toward 20%.

So both Rudy and Fred at various times have dropped about 10%. Rasmussen points out that this indicates that the Republicans are in a quite fluid race. That is true with Rudy and Fred. It is not true with Romney who has stayed in a very narrow range throughout the campaign (low of 9%, high of 17%, almost always 12-15%). McCain has also stayed in a consistent range (8-15%). Huckabee is the only candidate to make significant and consistent improvements since August, but is still only at 10%.

The part that is fluid is really Fred and Rudy!

There is plenty of time for a lot more movement, but I would rather be where Fred is than riding the trend that Rudy is on.

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