Strategy for Winning

The following is an analysis of how FDT can select his targets to win the Republican nomination. First, I am an amateur. Second, the primary schedule is fluid, but I think some of the principles will follow. Third, I am using old information regarding how the delegates are assigned, but I think that should not have changed. Fourth, I am assuming that early success (i.e. through the Feb 5th super primary will produce increased results later).

Total Delegates: 2,488, 1,245 needed for nomination.

The January Primaries are: DC (16), Iowa (41), Nevada(34), New Hampshire(24), Wyoming (12) and Florida (114).

FDT is currently tied for 2nd in Iowa, 12 points down. I think it is possible for him to win Iowa, but it will be difficult. An acceptable result in Iowa would be a close second. But effort in Iowa would be well spent as a win would make him look almost inevitable.

New Hampshire is a proportional primary. FDT should not ignore this state because he can pick up some delegates, but he currently tracks in fourth place here and I do not believe he can do better than third. I do not think the benefit here is worth spending the money. Furthermore, I think that Romney will win here and it does not appear that he has a real chance to win the nomination.

Florida is big. It is the first large delegate primary (114) and while it is not a true winner take all primary, it is close. Whoever wins this primary by percentage will get a significant majority of the delegates (38 delegates to the statewide winner). The most recent poll by Insider Advantage, which is the only one taken completely after FDT entered the race, has FDT up by 6 points. And Fred is just getting into Florida today. This is the state that Fred needs to win and I think he will.

So at the end of January, with the most optimistic results, FDT will have won at least Iowa and Florida and probably Nevada and/or Wyoming. This should produce about 130 delegates of 244 available.

The next up is South Carolina (47). FDT is polling in front of Giuliani and we can expect him to win here. In fact, I am going to assume that FDT will win ALL of the Southern State primaries, which leads to...

Super Tuesday. As best as I can tell, Super Tuesday will involve Alabama (48), Arizona (53), Arkansas (34), California (173), Colorado (46), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Georgia (72), Illinois (70), Kansas (39), Michigan (61), Missouri (58), Montana (24), New Jersey (52), New Mexico (32), New York (101), North Carolina (69), Oklahoma (42), Pennsylvania (74), Rhode Island (19), Tennessee (55), Texas (138) and Utah (36). 1,344 delegates to be chosen.

I think FDT get at least all of the southern states (AL, AK, GE, MO, NC, TN, TX) which should produce about 340 delegates. He will NOT win CT, DE, NJ, NY, PA and RI (assume 0 delegates, but he may come out with some). The most significant of the rest is California, which is a winner take all primary. The most recent survey from California by SurveyUSA (the only one done after FDT's announcement) has Fred down by 2 points. I expect this set of 173 delegates to be the critical factor in the nomination process.

Assuming FDT gets California (up to 513 on Super Tuesday) and then 180 of the remaining 367 deligates on Super Tuesday, FDT would end February 5th with 870 deligates of the 1245 needed and 850 delegates left to be chosen. Just as important, if it plays out this way, it will almost guarantee that neither Mitt or Rudy would be able to get the 1245 as they will certainly split some of the early states (e.g. New Hampshire).

SO, the critical factors for FDT are to win Florida, California and the South. The South should not be difficult. He appears to be in good shape in Florida and in striking distance in California.