What Do the Polls Mean?

Michael Barone has written an article on Townhall.com trying to interpret poll results. He points out that the Democrat race seems to be fairly static while the Republican race is very fluid. Those of us following FDT are very aware and thrilled about the current fluidity of the Republican race.

I find very interesting is his explanation of WHY the Republican race is so fluid one main point:

Another reason is that Republican voters this cycle, like Democratic voters in 2003-04, fear their side will lose and are looking for a candidate with "electability." Democrats last time settled on John Kerry -- a miscalculation, it turned out. Republicans this time are still looking around. For that reason, Thompson's standing in pairings against Democrats may be as important for his candidacy as anything else. He's got to show that he's as electable as Giuliani, who has led Democrats in most but not all polls this year.

I have actually been wondering why FDT has not taken off MORE than what he already has. He clearly is more in line with Republican values than Giuliani, yet he is only 1 point up (Rasmussen). I think this is probably the reason.

Until just recently, Real Clear Politics combination poll has had Giuliani in front of Clinton. That just changed in the latest revision. FDT is consistently behind Clinton by 6%+. His deficit behind Obama is even greater (12%).

So, to this point, Giuliani is "more electable" than FDT. I am guessing that as FDT becomes more well known and his comparisons between the Democrats and FDT narrow, his lead over Giuliani will grow.

Time will tell.