More Conventional Wisdom

Mark Willen of Kiplinger Forecasts has written an article about Fred Thompson basically saying that he will be the immediate front runner when he announces his candidacy, but that he will fade after announcing. His reasons show that he has been reading the New York Times and not listening to FDT.

1. The NYT lobbying story mentioned in a previous post
2. He is not a conservative ideologue as evidenced by abortion, campaign finance reform and the Clinton impeachment.
3. He is not an outsider.
4. His legislative record is weak (in that he has little legislation in his name).
5. He is too lazy to work the long hours necessary for a campaign
6. He will have to get specific on policies which will alienate some
7. His lack of organization and funds
8. Newt in the wings

I've already talked about #1, 2, 3 and 8. FDT argues that his legislative record is weak because he was more concerned with reducing legislation. In other words, it is not important. I don't think that Mrs. Clinton or Obama has much of a record there either. His laziness is much over reported. After all, he has been managing to hold down an acting job while at the same time filling in for Paul Harvey and doing his own radio commentaries. One quote that I heard attributed to him was that he should get into the campaign so that his time commitments would be reduced. I think everyone will be surprised about how quickly FDT raises funds and gets organized. Much of the RNC money and talent has been sitting on the sidelines waiting to figure out where to go.

The only point that I agree with Mark Willen is that once he starts articulating policies, it will alienate some. It can't be helped. On the other hand, no one else in the campaign (Republican or Democrat) have particularly articulated anything. If you asked ten people what Hillary would do about the economy and taxes, you would get some generalities ("tax the rich"), but no one would know HOW she would propose to do so or what she means by "rich".

Mark Willen misses other things that work toward FDT's benefit. There are many who have not heard enough yet about FDT to support him yet, so in some areas he will gain support. He also will benefit as his comparative polls against Hillary and Obama improve--that is he will appear more electable and will then get votes from Giuliani. As the season goes on, candidates will drop out and FDT stands to gain the most when some of the candidates drop out (e.g. McCain).